Trade Revamping

[Darbius]

I made this suggestion in the new players channel the other day and people really seemed to like it. Basically I see it as a way to add some dynamism and variety to the trading profession in this game. A lot of us actually like doing the trade runs, but the thing that gets old is doing the same old trade runs over and over again (ahem...Pluto --> Earth, Somer --> Fenris) and I have a suggested change that could really help revamp the system.

Essentially it would be implementing a supply and demand curve to some extent. I'm a little fuzzy on exactly what the right formulas would be, but it would be something along the lines of the following:

For every X number of units that are sold in a given location, the sell price drops by a certain percentage. The concept here is the same as a supply and demand curve (that there was high demand but as that demand is filled, the willingness to pay the high price decreases), but on a somewhat simpler scale that would be much easier to implement. So for the sake of argument let's say the right numbers (and I'm not saying they are the right numbers) are that for every 500 units fulfilled the price goes down 5% from the base price.

Example: Traders have been focusing on the Pluto  Earth trade route shipping XXXX from Pluto to Earth. Assuming current numbers, these are purchased at 963 credits each at Pluto and are sold at 1,963 each at Earth (1,000 credits profit). After traders get 500 units of XXXX to Earth, the sell price becomes 1,865 credits. After 500 more units arrive at Earth, the sell price becomes 1,767. After 500 more units arrive the sell price becomes 1,669 credits and so on and so on. This decrease might be capped at 70% of the base price to insure that you always make some profit (1,374 credits = 411 profit).

Now conversely, you would have trade routes that get neglected where sell prices would rise as demand goes up. You could imagine from a lore perspective that each day a settlement unable to produce its own food doesn’t get it and people are starving and dying, they would pay quite a bit more to get that food delivered. An object that was once bought cheap and sold cheap, can now be bought cheap and sold for a fortune. Basically this would be for every time period Y that a station doesn’t received a desired good, the price goes up Z%. For the sake of argument here, let’s say that every day a station doesn’t receive a desired good, that good’s sell price goes up by 10%.

As an example here, let’s pretend there’s a neglected trade route (I’m making this up) from Inverness to Endriago where you buy Ecology Crates (again, making it up) for 750 at Inverness and sell them in Endriago for 1,450 base sell price (700 credits profit). So after one day of receiving no / not enough goods, the sell price goes up to 1,595 (845 profit). After two days of receiving no / not enough goods the sell price would go up to 1,740 (990 profit) and so on. After 7 days of receiving no / not enough it would go up to 2,465 (1,715 profit) and would actually be substantially more lucrative than the Pluto to Earth run despite being one gate longer. You could also see how traders wouldn’t ignore these raising profits and would rush to fill the demand, bringing the price down as more of the products are delivered. You’d probably want to max the sell price at 200% of base sell price just to keep things even but that might not even be necessary to tell the truth.

In theory there are only so many traders doing only so much trading so in the end it should balance itself out and provide some variety as far as the trading runs we do. This could even be calculated at the end of each day or at the end of each week, not necessarily on the fly. I know doing it on the fly could put a pretty heavy burden on the server potentially depending on how the calculations are done.

As I said the math above isn’t necessarily the correct math, but I’d be happy to try to figure out what the right numbers are if you want help on that front. This would probably also need to involve introducing some more high-priced goods at various spots throughout the universe, but that could certainly be done.

Anyways, I know that was a long post so thanks for bearing with it (if you actually got this far down). Let me know what you all think.

[Riz]

While I do agree it could make things more fun for those of us who are not just gettign started. Imagine being that new player going for their first Somer/Fen run. They load up at Somer, and plod along all the way to Fen, only to find out that all of us old hands had already saturated the market there, and their cargo is now worth squat.

Not really the best way to encourage new players to join in.

[rhobix]

[quote name='Riz' timestamp='1306214780' post='41092']
While I do agree it could make things more fun for those of us who are not just gettign started. Imagine being that new player going for their first Somer/Fen run. They load up at Somer, and plod along all the way to Fen, only to find out that all of us old hands had already saturated the market there, and their cargo is now worth squat.

Not really the best way to encourage new players to join in.
[/quote]
On the other hand those who doesn't know where to go would most likely just select something at random, and since there is such a wide variety of trade goods, chances are pretty good the trade goods have been completely neglected if you just pick one at random (unless there's some way to tell in advance). That would mean there is a good chance there's a boost to the sell price...

[Murdered]

[quote name='Riz' timestamp='1306214780' post='41092']
While I do agree it could make things more fun for those of us who are not just gettign started. Imagine being that new player going for their first Somer/Fen run. They load up at Somer, and plod along all the way to Fen, only to find out that all of us old hands had already saturated the market there, and their cargo is now worth squat.

Not really the best way to encourage new players to join in.
[/quote]

You have a great point, however I do think his idea has merit and with a few tweaks could bring much needed life into trade runs. One such tweak could be base it off individual rather than the group, and since we would base it off the individual the cap amount would be a much smaller amount, say 200 units.
In this way you would not kill the new run smell but could help with encouraging people to research into what they buy and would make it so there is no definite money maker.

[rhobix]

I'll add my opinion as well then. Here is how I would like the trade system to work:

The server keeps track of how much of each trade goods in demand each trader has bought. I think this number should be server-wide. It is a MMO after all.... At regular intervals, the trader calculates a new price and "sells" off a certain ammount of the trade goods he has bought, say equivalent to 10% per hour. This makes it more difficult both to "overflow" a trade route and find a really lucrative trade route, since the traders inventory will decline faster if he has a lot, but it will take longer before he gets desperate and is willing to pay the big bucks.
The formula for calculating the price, P, could be something like this:
P=LP*(0.5+1.5*C/(C+N)) where
LP is list price (the price we have today)
C is a scaling factor (equivalent to half the inventory at which the trader will buy at the list price)
N the traders current inventory

Balancing could be done by adjusting the LP, C and the %-per hour of inventory the trader disposes of. Even the 0.5 and 1.5 constants could be modified (0.5 sets the minimum price which the price approaches as the traders inventory approaches infinity, 2 (0.5+1.5) sets the maximum price the trader will pay when he runs completely out of stock).

[garblesoup]

If there was some way that the sell prices of the various goods at the receiving stations were published I would like this. Absent that it sounds like a lot of trial and error chasing where the hot routes are. As much as Eve bored me to tears I was always very impressed by the dynamic market capabilities they incorporated and the sophisticated ways the market data was made available. In some alternate reality where there would be an Earth and Beyond II (or even III) I'd imagine that type of functionality would have been a big part of the game.

[Darbius]

[quote name='Jarod' timestamp='1306251992' post='41103']
If there was some way that the sell prices of the various goods at the receiving stations were published I would like this. Absent that it sounds like a lot of trial and error chasing where the hot routes are. As much as Eve bored me to tears I was always very impressed by the dynamic market capabilities they incorporated and the sophisticated ways the market data was made available. In some alternate reality where there would be an Earth and Beyond II (or even III) I'd imagine that type of functionality would have been a big part of the game.
[/quote]


Yes, I forgot to mention that this would also probably imply the need to be able to see what the sell price will be when you purchase the item. In the tooltip it would probably have to say, "Station X is paying Y credits for this good" or something like that.

[Riz]

If it were balanced in such a way to keep it from killing lowbies chances, I could get behind such an idea. A shifting trade route would be interesting, and was suggested many times in live.

[AZdexter]

I adment that I didn't read the whole thread but sounds like they want to add a little EVE onto trade. So if I and 5 pepole do the Som-frenis run then the 6th person gets less per item....right? I could go for that. make it more then just a grind. which I am doing now so I can build lvl 4 shields.

[garblesoup]

[quote name='DarbiusMaximus' timestamp='1306254782' post='41106']
Yes, I forgot to mention that this would also probably imply the need to be able to see what the sell price will be when you purchase the item. In the tooltip it would probably have to say, "Station X is paying Y credits for this good" or something like that.
[/quote]

Yes, but even with this you are still humping to a starting station to even find out whether that trade run is (currently) paying top dollar. Without some manner of viewing the current status of the various trade routes that does not require the player to actually spend the time to go to the terminal it's still a lot of trial and error. And that takes time. And that time is the primary factor in the equation - how much XP is being earned per unit of time? When the additional time to hop around to various stations *in search* of the optimal trade route is factored in, the XP/time ratio is (probably) diluted to the point that it's just better to take the old standby's.

[rhobix]

[quote name='Jarod' timestamp='1306279858' post='41121']
Yes, but even with this you are still humping to a starting station to even find out whether that trade run is (currently) paying top dollar. Without some manner of viewing the current status of the various trade routes that does not require the player to actually spend the time to go to the terminal it's still a lot of trial and error. And that takes time. And that time is the primary factor in the equation - how much XP is being earned per unit of time? When the additional time to hop around to various stations *in search* of the optimal trade route is factored in, the XP/time ratio is (probably) diluted to the point that it's just better to take the old standby's.
[/quote]
Trade always has been a gamble. I don't think it needs to be much of that here though. Most vendors (all that were in live as far as I can remember) has at least a dozen different trade goods to choose from. I think it'd be more than the entire server population could do today to keep all trade goods from one vendor saturated....
If you just set the parameters right, you will always be able to find a route that's just as profitable as todays top routes. It would be up to the individual if they wanted to invest the time to find that exceptional trade route...

[Darbius]

I'm imagining something where I can tell what the item I'm buying will sell for on the other end. I was also thinking more about it and it probably would make sense to run the calculations and make adjustments at the end of every day so I don't have to worry about my goods dropping in value halfway through my Somer --> Fenris run.

[Terrell [BT]]

I think it's a pretty good idea. My only concern besides having the value of the things in my hold drop while in the middle of a run, is that a downward price adjustment in an item may result in selling for a loss for those toons who don't have the negotiate skill. Overall I'm supportive of this idea, but think that has to be taken into account.

[Stoop]

I don't know if it's possible, but how about if the price goes up/down for that particular player after doing so the same trade run x amount of times instead of server wide so it doesn't screw over other people doing that trade run?

Otherwise I'd say if something ain't broke don't fix it, the potential to screw over other players could get out of hand (people could form trade run groups, all grab the same item, get to their destination and *boom* price decline for anyone not in their group) which could lead to people getting dissatisfied with the game and leaving

[rhobix]

[quote name='Tanya' timestamp='1306375518' post='41164']
I don't know if it's possible, but how about if the price goes up/down for that particular player after doing so the same trade run x amount of times instead of server wide so it doesn't screw over other people doing that trade run?

Otherwise I'd say if something ain't broke don't fix it, the potential to screw over other players could get out of hand (people could form trade run groups, all grab the same item, get to their destination and *boom* price decline for anyone not in their group) which could lead to people getting dissatisfied with the game and leaving
[/quote]
[quote name='DarbiusMaximus' timestamp='1306340070' post='41149']
I'm imagining something where I can tell what the item I'm buying will sell for on the other end. I was also thinking more about it and it probably would make sense to run the calculations and make adjustments at the end of every day so I don't have to worry about my goods dropping in value halfway through my Somer --> Fenris run.
[/quote]
I still think the system should update faster rather than slower. It would just have to take a lot more trade goods to make the price drop. Using my formula from above with C set to say 400, and say the trader has 200 trade goods in stock. The goods would then sell for 50% above the list price, which would be quite profitable. However, just for the goods to sell for list price, which I think no-one should be unhappy about, you'd have to offload 600 units in one go. That more than 15 fully loaded traders. I don't think that's going to happen too often... And if it does, just increase C...

[quote name='Terrell' timestamp='1306343346' post='41150']
I think it's a pretty good idea. My only concern besides having the value of the things in my hold drop while in the middle of a run, is that a downward price adjustment in an item may result in selling for a loss for those toons who don't have the negotiate skill. Overall I'm supportive of this idea, but think that has to be taken into account.
[/quote]
Yepp, the minimum price you'd get if you sell to the right vendor would have to be more than the price you buy at. I realize now that this would require either the list price or the 0.5-factor in my formula to be adjusted for several trade goods for it to work...

[Darbius]

[quote name='Knix' timestamp='1306396628' post='41172']
I still think the system should update faster rather than slower. It would just have to take a lot more trade goods to make the price drop. Using my formula from above with C set to say 400, and say the trader has 200 trade goods in stock. The goods would then sell for 50% above the list price, which would be quite profitable. However, just for the goods to sell for list price, which I think no-one should be unhappy about, you'd have to offload 600 units in one go. That more than 15 fully loaded traders. I don't think that's going to happen too often... And if it does, just increase C...


Yepp, the minimum price you'd get if you sell to the right vendor would have to be more than the price you buy at. I realize now that this would require either the list price or the 0.5-factor in my formula to be adjusted for several trade goods for it to work...
[/quote]

All great points and I'm glad people are discussing the idea. To address a couple things above, I would say there should probably be a low-side cap based on not having the negotiation skill (i.e., everything is based on a base-price that is not skill-influenced) to make sure people don't lose money on their runs. I would say on the low end people should probably make at least 20% profit without negotiation.

As far as a top-end cap, I don't think that would ever become a concern or even be necessary because players would probably be pretty responsive to high profit trade runs. If it ever got out of hand though it probably wouldn't be hard to introduce a 200% base sell price cap or something like that.

To reiterate, I do think they would have to change to tooltips to show sell price on the other end. Alternatively, there could be a sliding scale or something that converts into text like "...is in extremely high demand at Earth Station" which means it sells for 180%+ base sell price or something like that, while "...is in moderate demand at Arx Magister" means the goods will sell for 100-120% base sell price, and "...is in low demand at Charon Station" means it sells for 70% of base sell price or something. Knowing the actual sell price would be great, but an indicator/scale like this could work too if it's easier on the devs.

To address the point about trade goods dropping in value the middle of a run, that's why I was thinking it might be appropriate to do it at the end of each day. While I potentially like the idea of tracking and implementing this system at a player level, I imagine it would have much more of an impact on the server if tracked separately for every player than if it was just tracked in an overall database based on sell points.

[Falstar [MOD]]

I would also agree that there should be some lower cap. Story wise the receiving station will probably always need what you bring, it just depends on how much they have already. We wouldn't want players showing up at a station and sell at a loss, even if that could happen in reality.

The dev team has talked a little about a dynamic trade system, but that has been put on the back burner, but I'm confident that it'll get some love after a while.

I would also be interested in something that would make it more enticing to go trading in groups as people have combat groups and ,mining groups - how often have you heard of a group going for a trade run?

[rhobix]

[quote name='Dakynos' timestamp='1306449048' post='41232']
I would also be interested in something that would make it more enticing to go trading in groups as people have combat groups and ,mining groups - how often have you heard of a group going for a trade run?
[/quote]
A group XP bonus for trade as well would be welcome. As it is today, not even the TT-group bonus works. In live we used to do trade runs together in my guild... I can't remember if it was just for the company or if the TT-group bonus worked back then...

[punk [BTL]]

While I don't know the coding difficulty behind this I think your coming up with some great ideas.
I do have one idea that when you buy an item you are buying a fixed price contract to sell that one for X at the stations in description might be a bit easier than active dynamic price movement but could vary once an hour maybe to keep people watching what they buy rather than trade runs on zombie mode.
Just a thought
Alkemmi

[Spode]

I was thinking the same Alkemmi, kind of similar to the hauling contracts in EVE where you take goods from A to B and will get paid for it. This of course with the difference that here you would have to buy the goods, haul them and sell them all as a part of the deal/contract.

[Rezwalker]

The idea of supply and demand would be a more realistic and interesting way to enhance the game if codding permits,
in addition, group bonus should be implemented asap for the extra incentive to group, after all this game is largely
designed to be a team effort, the more the merrier imho.
Now lets add a twist and have 1 or 2 warriors sharing the trade xp with the others hauling the trade goods by providing protection to the group against lets say space pirates that would attack at any given time or place en rout and we have a winner lol